Weekly Russia-Ukraine war summary: Fighting near Pokrovsk, Russian forces encircling Kurakhove, Kherson becomes training ground for UAVs

In this week's summary:

• DeepState: the situation in the Pokrovsk sector is becoming “critical with discouraging prospects” for the Armed Forces of Ukraine
• Russian troops are advancing to the north and south of Kurakhove; less than 10 kilometers remain before the town is fully encircled.
• On the eastern flank of the Vremevsky Bulge, head-on battles are unfolding along the Novyi Komar-Razdolne line.
• The Russian Armed Forces are losing their advantage in the weight of artillery fire and have reduced the use of aerial bombs modified with Unified Gliding and Correction Module (UMPK) kits.
• Financial Times: Russian drone operators have been using Kherson as a testing ground to practice their skills.
• Meduza: Russia's quarterly budget execution data shows a drop in the recruitment of contract soldiers into the Russian Armed Forces.
• Yurii Butusov: the Ukrainian side’s total killed and missing in action in the war amounts to 105,000 people.
• The Biden administration promises to deliver hundreds of thousands of shells and hundreds of armored vehicles to Ukraine by mid-January 2025.

Situation at the front

This week, Russian forces resumed their active advance south of Pokrovsk, occupying (1, 2, 3) Zhovte, Pustynka, Novopustynka, and Novodmitrivka. They also started the battle for the village of Shevchenko, the last Ukrainian-controlled settlement south of Pokrovsk. Analysis from the Ukrainian outlet DeepState suggests that the situation in the Pokrovsk sector is becoming “critical with discouraging prospects” for the AFU.

The situation is no less difficult in the vicinity of Kurakhove, where Russian forces have occupied the entire northern bank of the Kurakhove Reservoir, including Stari Terny. Their further advance south across the dam threatens to cut off the last supply line for the Ukrainian defenders of Kurakhove. Fighting is underway in the central part of the town. The Russian Armed Forces have also reportedly occupied the village of Sukhi Yaly on the Sukhi Yaly River. The river serves as the AFU's defensive line in the “pocket” that has formed in the southeastern part of the Kurakhove operational area as Russian forces continue to advance. In the pocket itself, Illinka has been captured, and fighting is underway on the outskirts of Romanivka and Uspenivka. Less than 10 kilometers remain between the Russian forward positions south and north of Kurakhove — that is, the distance Russian forces would need to advance before the pocket around the town can be fully closed is shrinking.

At the Vremyevsky Bulge, the Russian Armed Forces occupied Razdolne and entered Blahodatne, villages located to the north and south of Velyka Novosilka, respectively. In the meantime, the AFU pushed the enemy out of the previously abandoned village of Novyi Komar, where Russian control posed a threat to Ukrainian logistics. The Russian forces are apparently trying to recapture this settlement. According to the Russian pro-war channel Voin DV, the Battle of Velyka Novosilka is only just beginning, and “all the hardest things are still ahead” in this sector.

In Russia's Kursk Region, Ukrainian troops are facing problems with morale: they struggle to understand why they are fighting on foreign soil, the BBC writes. Nevertheless, the footage of a Ukrainian tank being hit in the Russian village of Daryino suggests that the Russians have yet to recapture the area. The AFU’s seizure of Daryino was the only confirmed success in Ukraine’s most recent offensive in the Kursk bridgehead.

The Russian Armed Forces have been set back by a ban on the use of personal vehicles at the front (1, 2, 3, 4) and a shrinking advantage in the weight of artillery fire over the AFU. Russia is currently estimated to be firing only 1.5 rounds for each Ukrainian round — at times, the Russian advantage had been more than 10:1. Russian forces had been compensating through the massive use of FAB bombs fitted out with UMPK kits. However, according to the AFU General Staff, the latter also decreased significantly at the end of November — for unknown reasons.

Mutual strikes and sabotage

The AFU Air Force Command reported (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) intercepting 205 Shahed and other unidentified types of drones out of 373 launched by Russia during the week. Another 143 were “radar lost,” meaning they crashed under the influence of electronic warfare tools or turned out to be decoys. Thirteen flew back towards Belarus, Russia, or the occupied territories. On the night of Dec. 3, energy infrastructure facilities in Ukraine’s Ternopil and Rivne regions came under attack.

According to the Financial Times, 9,500 Russian drones — mainly of the smaller FPV type — have been involved in attacks around Kherson since August 2024, killing at least 37 people and injuring another 494. As Oleksandr Prokudin, head of the Kherson Region Military Administration, points out, Russian drone operators have been using the city as a training ground.

In addition, Ukraine reported the following Russian strikes on its civilian infrastructure:

• On the night of Nov. 30, 24 people were injured and four people were killed in an attack on the Dnipro Raion.
• A drone attack in Ternopil on the night of Dec. 2 damaged an apartment building and caused a massive fire. One person was killed, three were injured, and approximately 100 tenants were evacuated.
• On the evening of Dec. 6, the Russian Armed Forces launched a missile attack on an administrative building in the city of Kryvyi Rih, killing two civilians and injuring 17 others, including a six-year-old boy.
• A glide bomb strike was also reported on an intersection in Zaporizhzhia, resulting in nine dead and six wounded.

In addition, the week was marked by the “abnormal discharges” of six FAB bombs in Russia's Belgorod Region (1, 2). The independent publication Astra has calculated that Russia has suffered a total of 162 such incidents in 2024.

The Russian Ministry of Defense reported (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9) the destruction of 141 fixed-wing drones over Russian territory and occupied Crimea. On the night of Dec. 6, the ministry also reported the destruction of six Ukrainian sea drones in a repelled attack on the Kerch Bridge.

This past week, the AFU also struck the following targets:

• The command post of the 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade in the Kursk Region. Twelve servicemen, including four officers, are reported killed, and another 25 injured.
• The Strela Plant in the Bryansk Region. The attack damaged the production shops, the finished goods warehouse, and an administrative building.
• The living quarters of the Akhmat Kadyrov Police Regiment in Grozny, Chechnya
• The headquarters of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division in the Voronezh Region; no casualties were reported.

According to data collected by volunteers from the Conflict Intelligence Team, at least 187 civilians were killed in Russia and Ukraine (including in the occupied territories) in November, and at least 1,149 more sustained injuries of varying severity.

Losses

The BBC Russian Service and Mediazona, together with a team of volunteers, have updated the Russian side's war casualty counts based on open-source reports. A total of 82,050 dead are known, with 2,231 names having been added to the list between Nov. 29 and Dec. 6.

The independent publication Meduza has published a study on contract recruitment in the Russian Armed Forces. The outlet’s report is based on state budget data. The rate of Russia's military recruitment in the third quarter of 2024 has slumped compared to the previous period and may not cover the current casualty rate: while Russia’s irretrievable losses total 600-750 troops per day, the number of new recruits is estimated at 600 per day.

Ukrainian military journalist Yurii Butusov asserts that the AFU's irrecoverable losses amount to 105,000 soldiers. This figure includes only those killed and missing, but not those seriously injured. Butusov claims that the AFU General Staff relayed this estimate to the Commander-in-Chief's headquarters.

Weapons and military vehicles

The U.S. has allocated another $725 million in military aid to Ukraine under the PDA (Presidential Drawdown Authority). In addition to ammunition for air defense, artillery, HIMARS, and antitank missile systems, the package will include previously announced anti-personnel mines. In addition, President Biden's National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, has promised to deliver hundreds of armored vehicles and hundreds of thousands of artillery rounds and missiles to Ukraine by January 2025.

Meanwhile, President Zelensky told Sky News that Kyiv's Western partners have armed only 2.5 out of 10 brigades worth of already recruited AFU soldiers. The comments came in response to U.S. suggestions that Ukraine lower its mandatory mobilization age, which is currently set at 25 years old.

The following military aid packages to Ukraine have also been announced:

• During his visit to Kyiv, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz presented a new €650 million military aid package for Ukraine, but as it turned out, all of these supplies except for additional Patriot SAM launchers had been announced earlier.
• The Netherlands reported the allocation of an additional €22 million for projects strengthening UKraine's air defense and cyber resilience.
• Finland has delivered to Ukraine its 26th military aid package, this one totaling €25 million. Its exact composition was not disclosed, but the Finnish Defense Ministry specified that it includes winter equipment for the AFU.
• Estonian company Frankenburg Technologies will test anti-drone surface-to-air missiles in Ukraine in 2025.

As for Ukraine's defense industry, Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov announced the launch of serial production of the Palianytsia drone missile system, and President Zelensky presented the new Peklo drone missile, which is already being supplied to the AFU. Meanwhile, the scandal around defective Ukrainian-made mines continues unabated: not only 120-mm, but also 82-mm mortar shells of the same manufacturer turned out to be unusable.

In Russia, the Kalashnikov Group reported on tests of electric combat motorcycles. Kurganmashzavod demonstrated factory-made ‘barbecue-grill’ armor for BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles. But according to Ukrainian military expert Andriy Tarasenko, soldiers at the front would simply throw such “upgrades” away. Meanwhile, the Western sanctions policy was reported to have had a negative effect on the navigation of Shahed drones and the fire control systems of T-90 tanks. The Insider learned how Italian steelmaking equipment continues to flow into Russia via China. Radio Liberty has discovered that a Chinese company with a factory in the U.S. is supplying Russia with Unified Gliding and Correction Module (UMPK) kits for aerial bombs.

Russia's “battlefield defense industry” produced a meticulously armored UAZ pickup truck, an MT-LB armored fighting vehicle with makeshift armor made from rubber and fabric, and handmade birdshot cartridges for AK assault rifles to shoot drones.